tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post6947836307444860571..comments2023-10-27T08:58:05.463+01:00Comments on eirael: The Failure of Western Diplomacy in EgyptRob Harrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-42631901562467571722013-09-11T21:27:20.902+01:002013-09-11T21:27:20.902+01:00You seem to frequently overlook the fact the milit...You seem to frequently overlook the fact the military kept him in power well over 30 years or all the protesters it killed. The Egyptian military like most Arab militaries an regimes is bought off by Western money. Only Hizballah, Syria and Iran have resisted US influence. <br /><br />In democracies you wait till the next election to oust a sitting government regardless of how much it is hated by the people. Clearly the brutal crackdown shows you that those who support Morsi can't even get a say or the right to express their anger. It is however extremely convenient for the Israelis now as Hamas is up shit creek because they are so isolated. No need to worry about a Pan-Islamic coalition if Assad is ousted either. In fact, the better it is for them if he is. The resistance in Lebanon would then end up like Hamas and Israel could hit Iran without worry of Hizballah resupplying itself.<br /><br />The US is trying to buy peace in the Middle East but is only inflamming the situation. The Lebanese military receives US support and it is completely useless and incapable of properly defending Lebanon as a result.<br /><br />Im no fan of the Muslim Brotherhood but they were fairly elected into office.<br /><br />Halanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-68634161712396085172013-08-29T12:35:47.904+01:002013-08-29T12:35:47.904+01:00Hala, here is my response - apologies again for th...Hala, here is my response - apologies again for the delays as my time for the blog is limited. <br /><br />Hala: “My point was all fledgling democracies face quite serious issues when they begin to bud.” – yes I agree, that was my point too.<br /><br />“The military kept Mubarak, the Egyptian military killed anti-Mubarak protestors, the military ousted Mubarak, the military ruled Egypt itself for awhile, Morsi was freely and fairly elected” – they kept Mubarak in power but that military tradition going back many decades had come from a time when there was either a king or a dictator. The two fundamental acts of the military in recent times were pro-democracy: unseating Mubarak, and holding largely fair elections.<br /><br />“The fact that foreign aid is flowing into the Egyptian defence budget surely does raise eyebrows in Egypt as it is quite that they hold the balance of power.” It is fair to say they would surely hold the balance of power, no matter if aid was supplied or not, and in this instance most Egyptians appear to support the military over Morsi.<br /><br />“You argued before that Morsi didn't win a majority. I don't know how you think democracy should work but you don't need a majority to win an election.” – I did not suggest such a thing because I believe Morsi won the election unless voter fraud allegations are to be believed. My point regards popular revolutions, as opposed to democracies. I stated that 13 million voted for Morsi in the second-round where it was just two candidates. This was the largest number of people that voted for him, and that contrasted with 22 million eligible voters signing a petition against him, and an estimated 30 million taking to the streets. Hence my contention that the unseating of Morsi was led by a populist revolution, rather than one initiated by the military so it is defined more as such than a military coup.<br /><br />“Kenny received 36% of the votes yet almost had a majority. Luckily the UK doesn't use the PR system but if you look at UK elections you'll see no party has won over 50% in the last 50 years. The best example is the 1983 election.” – It is not a good idea to compare as multi-party election with that of a presidental run-off vote. Morsi only got 5.7 million voting for him in the first round but of course that was still the highest. Nonetheless the more moderate secular candidates led that election by a large margin in their combined vote. This explains the discontent over Morsi’s time in office.<br /><br />“I know what your point is but handing money and military equipment freely won't bring any gratitude as it becomes almost expected. Also there's no other meaningful way to punish the Egyptian military.” But they can’t even punish them this way because the money is guaranteed elsewhere. Only time will tell whether the military act in good faith but I think there is a balance between being a critical friend and alienating them to a great extent – I believe the West crossed a line in this regard.<br /><br />“The plight of Christians in Egypt is saddening and you're right to say the MB isn't their friend but neither is the military. I can't remember the name of the massacre but I do remember the Egyptian military killing over 20 Copts, including running over them with tanks. Not many political parties in Egypt are genuinely committed to a peaceful sectarian coexistence in Egypt”<br />Yes some military vehicles (lighter than tanks I believe) ran over a number of Copts during a protest near a TV station, and around 26 were killed. It was a shocking event but the Copts supported Shafik, associated with Mubarak/Morsi’s major opponent, despite that. Much of the ill-treatment after the fall of Mubarak was due to a power vacuum with an inability of the military leadership to quell Islamism, such as in the Sinai – it is more a case of Copts choosing the lesser of two evils.Rob Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-1017860821707272852013-08-25T08:22:11.860+01:002013-08-25T08:22:11.860+01:00My point was all fledgling democracies face quite ...My point was all fledgling democracies face quite serious issues when they begin to bud. I deliberately chose Ireland as an example because it is closer to home but Im sure there's plenty more places which have faced serious issues in their transition. No country is the same or has the same reasons for conflict but violence seems to be the reasonating ebb to young, immature democracies. I could very well argue democracy didn't exist at all until recently because women and the working-classes were excluded but it deviates from the point. <br /><br />Older Egyptians have lived from King Farouk to Nasser and up until recently only one leader was there in office legitimately. The common denominator in all of those leaders was/is the Egyptian military. The military kept Mubarak, the Egyptian military killed anti-Mubarak protestors, the military ousted Mubarak, the military ruled Egypt itself for awhile, Morsi was freely and fairly elected, Morsi ruled for awhile, military ousts Morsi, military massacres Morsi supporters, military currently holds power. The fact that foreign aid is flowing into the Egyptian defence budget surely does raise eyebrows in Egypt as it is quite that they hold the balance of power. <br /><br /> You argued before that Morsi didn't win a majority. I don't know how you think democracy should work but you don't need a majority to win an election. Kenny received 36% of the votes yet almost had a majority. Luckily the UK doesn't use the PR system but if you look at UK elections you'll see no party has won over 50% in the last 50 years. The best example is the 1983 election. Thatcher won an absolute landslide majority with less votes, less voters and a smaller percentage of votes compared to her victory in 1979 where she had a greater percentage of votes and a larger number of voters but barely scraped a majority in parliament. Scrap the PR system and a divided opposition becomes the key to success. So arguing that Morsi's premiership was null and void from the beginning is a contradiction of many Western democracies. <br /><br />Yes but actions speak louder than words and finally the West has stopped the gravy train of what seemed like unconditional money. I know what your point is but handing money and military equipment freely won't bring any gratitude as it becomes almost expected. Also there's no other meaningful way to punish the Egyptian military. The plight of Christians in Egypt is saddening and you're right to say the MB isn't their friend but neither is the military. I can't remember the name of the massacre but I do remember the Egyptian military killing over 20 Copts, including running over them with tanks. Not many political parties in Egypt are genuinely committed to a peaceful sectarian coexistence in Egypt so I don't see a solution coming their way anytime soon.Halanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-27271018571367557472013-08-25T00:31:55.906+01:002013-08-25T00:31:55.906+01:00Hello Hala,
You wrote: “Im not the one who juggle...Hello Hala,<br /><br />You wrote: “Im not the one who juggled the two together, you did. You counted elections under Britain as democratic so the violence from 1912 upwards is rather relevant.” - When I mentioned the elections before the British left, it was to point out that the experience of democracy was embedded to some extent in Irish society. My point about the rebellion against British rule is that it had little to do with an upheaval of democracy because it was about the legitimacy of one nation ruling over another. This is somewhat different to a rebellion within a democratic Irish state that was already established. <br /><br />“Many Egyptians feel like they're under foreign influence by proxy.” – I suppose that was the feeling under Mubarak because he was an ally of the US? I recall many also saying of Morsi that he and the Muslim Brotherhood were less interested in Egypt and more focused on a sort of pan-Islamism. <br /><br />“You support an undemocratic military who has few reservations about killing its people? Mubarak didn't go out on the streets himself and kill 800 people. The military did.” – the killing was unacceptable, and they were rightly criticised for it. My point in the article was that I felt the new Egyptian regime would be more amenable to moderating diplomatic influences if it felt less isolated, and more likely to transition to democracy if it didn’t feel cornered diplomatically. Also in the West it has not been acknowledged http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-quinn/west-must-stop-ignoring-the-plight-of-persecuted-christians-29521785.html how destructive the Muslim Brotherhood has been in recent weeks. If they get re-elected it will be disaster for Christians there.Rob Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-64342215389928872252013-08-24T22:58:17.726+01:002013-08-24T22:58:17.726+01:00Ok, can do.
Im not the one who juggled the two to...Ok, can do.<br /><br />Im not the one who juggled the two together, you did. You counted elections under Britain as democratic so the violence from 1912 upwards is rather relevant. Many Egyptians feel like they're under foreign influence by proxy. <br /><br />You support an undemocratic military who has few reservations about killing its people? Mubarak didn't go out on the streets himself and kill 800 people. The military did.<br /><br />Well between Jews and irrational Evangelics, the supposed Saudi lobby you speak of is farce.<br /><br />Well generally spying does carry the intention of aiding the country you work for.<br /><br />Halanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-9633870179770341582013-08-24T22:41:54.010+01:002013-08-24T22:41:54.010+01:00By the way, please identify yourselves in future a...By the way, please identify yourselves in future as I have no idea to whom I am referring if everyone posts with an "anonymous" nic.Rob Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-70132914722301969162013-08-24T22:39:33.067+01:002013-08-24T22:39:33.067+01:00“Also Ireland had re occuring violence throughout ...“Also Ireland had re occuring violence throughout the third home rule period. The arms imports, the Easter rising, the War of Independence, The Civil War and then some political violence most notably the assassination of Kevin O'Higgins.” – I think you are conflating two separate issues here. Seeking independence from Britain is not the same phenomenon as the civil strife today in Egypt.<br /><br />“The military kept Mubarak for all those years.” – yes the military was integral to the rule of dictators in Egypt but in recent years it played an invaluable role in instituting reforms.<br /><br />“KSA can't buy the US and the US debt is mainly to China. Per capita Saudis still fare worse. KSA is debt free but 750 billion wouldn't come close to bailing out 14 trillion dollars of debt.” – per capita issues aren’t really the point, we’re talking about a nation like Saudi Arabia assisting the US or influencing it with its big lobby which no one talks about. It has far more disposable income than the US, particularly as the vast swathe of money is in the hands of the rulers of the land, the royalty etc.<br /><br />“Lol, thanks for the example of Israel committing espionage against its 'ally'.” – Israel didn’t get Pollard to spy on the US – Pollard actually volunteered to hand over information because he felt Israel was in danger without this intelligence. If you have the inclination please read about the Pollard case http://www.jonathanpollard.org/ without prejudice. No question he should have been punished severely but the sentence is extraordinary. Furthermore others like Yosef Amit have been found guilty of spying on Israel for the US. Wikileaks documents have also shown that Condoleezza Rice ordered a full spectrum mission to spy on Israel in 2008. I suggest you try to see both sides of the story.Rob Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-53228060162356491842013-08-24T21:34:26.493+01:002013-08-24T21:34:26.493+01:00Ireland may have had elections but when mingled wi...Ireland may have had elections but when mingled with Britain's constituencies we were just another minority party the liberals occasionally required. Also Ireland had re occuring violence throughout the third home rule period. The arms imports, the Easter rising, the War of Independence, The Civil War and then some political violence most notably the assassination of Kevin O'Higgins. Remember Ireland had about 5 million people overall at that stage, Egypt now has 90 million. Transition to true democracy brings violence. Egypt had phoney elections under Mubarak too.<br /><br />The military kept Mubarak for all those years. The military threw Morsi out too. Military juntas aren't democracies .<br /><br />KSA can't buy the US and the US debt is mainly to China. Per capita Saudis still fare worse. KSA is debt free but 750 billion wouldn't come close to bailing out 14 trillion dollars of debt. That is if they were to put their entire economy on the line in the first place.<br /><br />Im not saying Israel is stronger. Im saying Israel is a leach. Parasites aren't stronger than their hosts, they just serve to weaken them. Lol, thanks for the example of Israel committing espionage against its 'ally'.<br /><br />Israel did much more than that during the Iran-Iraq war.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-91927701524065452622013-08-24T21:17:37.568+01:002013-08-24T21:17:37.568+01:00Ireland from 1922 wasn’t anything like Egypt is to...Ireland from 1922 wasn’t anything like Egypt is today thankfully. One of the significant points in cross-community tensions was the sectarian violence in West Cork when a number of Protestants were killed that year, and the political elite, including that of the IRA, rallied to their assistance. You must remember that Ireland did have elections before this point as well, even if it didn’t have home rule.<br /><br />“How is democracy meant to flourish when a military prevents it from blossoming?” - I could turn the question around and ask how many states that started as democracies, merely used legitimate elections to institute a power-grab. You must remember that the military brought down Mubarak, and presided over a peaceful transfer of power to Morsi. That’s probably why the Egyptians accept the move.<br /><br />Saudi Arabia is far more wealthy than America, all you have to do is compare their population sizes relative to revenue. Your 16 trillion US figure is based on dept I believe. The yearly budget is 4 trillion. One economist says http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/08/15/california-economist-says-real-us-debt-70-trillion-not-16-trillion-government/ the debt is much more. The US is in a lot of trouble, while Saudi Arabia has virtually no debt whatsoever. Hey I would live there if it wasn’t for the heat.<br /><br />I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on US-Israel relations. Israel is the weaker of the two by a huge margin. That’s why Obama can blast the place diplomatically, and nothing changes. One good example is the treatment of Jonathan Pollard. Israel has been pleading with them to release him since the 90’s. They refused, and moreover have imprisoned him for a far greater stretch than those that committed treason, something he did not do as he didn’t aid an enemy, nor did he hurt the US with the disclosure.<br /><br />Israel only assisted in the US transfer of weapons hoping to appease the mullahs. Yes it was a wrong.Rob Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-54360886467827874582013-08-24T20:28:21.310+01:002013-08-24T20:28:21.310+01:00Ok, let's discussion early democracy in Irelan...Ok, let's discussion early democracy in Ireland. We had the Irish Army Mutiny in 1926. We were quite theocratic then too but Cumann na nGaedheal remained in power till 1932 without military intervention. How is democracy meant to flourish when a military prevents it from blossoming?<br /><br />Yeah, the Saudi economy of 750 billion vs the US economy of 16 trillion. Clearly we know who controls who. Are Saudi troops based in the US? Nope. Are US troops stationed in KSA? Yup. And Bahrain and Iraq and Kuwait and Oman and Afghanistan. <br /><br />Let us not forget who supplied this alleged monster then? Israel. Let us not forget the US and its Sunni puppets kept Iraq fighting for 8 years. Perhaps it's you who's indoctrinated! Iran is firmly anti Western and isn't corrupted by Western ideology.<br /><br />Well Ofc they'd exonerate their masters.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-48882589936767491922013-08-24T20:04:18.736+01:002013-08-24T20:04:18.736+01:00The issue specifically relates to Morsi’s winning ...The issue specifically relates to Morsi’s winning of the vote. It was a fairly marginal win – 51% to 49%, where he was competing against an old figure closely associated with Mubarak. Morsi won with only 13 or so million out of an electorate of some 55 million. I am not advocating the removal of a democratically elected president but if there were intensive protests for seven months, if some 30 million took to the streets just before his unseating, and if 22 million eligible voters signed a petition to force his removal then sorry but that’s a populist revolution that the military merely facilitated. <br /><br />Yes he may be reinstated as leader but I can’t see him win an election unless the military do something extremely shocking in the meantime. The Brotherhood have shown their true colours, and if there is one heartening thing about all this chaos then it is that the Egyptians have firmly said no to Islamism.<br /><br />Re. Biffo, I will be addressing the divergent conditions of emerging democracies versus mature democracies, of which Ireland is surely one, despite its various faults.<br /><br />The Shia-Sunni conflict was in fact a major source of trouble intermittently. It developed again with a gusto after the revolution in Iran. Most link it to a fall in pan-Arabism which was relatively secular, and a shift to the Islamic revival, which looks to Islam’s past. It is far more important today than Israel.<br /><br />America is not defined by being “Zionist”. That is redolent of the ZOG conspiracies, which are more fitting on far-right forums like Stormfront. Moreover since when has Saudi Arabia been bank-rolled by the US? If anything it is the other way around. Of course Saudi Arabia hasn’t been kind to its Shia minority. Neither have the Shia been that kind to the Sunni or have you missed what’s happening in Syria, which is more an extension of the pogrom Iran conducted in Iraq after Saddam was pulled down.<br /><br />I think you have been listening to too much propaganda by way of the Ayatollah! Maybe you should tell the parents of the tens http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=08a28e1c-6ece-4134-ba8e-e706d703401b of thousands of Basij child martyrs (who were sent to face Iraq’s forces with sticks, and walk over land mines to protect Iran’s military weaponry) about those guiding “principles”?<br /><br />Re. the USS Liberty, there have been plenty of friendly-fire attacks over the years, which have been accepted. There have been ten reports on the Liberty, some requested by the victims of the attack, that have exonerated Israel. The loss of 30+ men in a ship perhaps spying on Israel at the time is regrettable but if the US authorities repeatedly investigated and exonerated Israel then that should be good enough.Rob Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-62478784410294041982013-08-24T18:59:54.486+01:002013-08-24T18:59:54.486+01:00The Muslim Brotherhood won 45% of the vote the las...The Muslim Brotherhood won 45% of the vote the last time. Who is to say that he won't be reinstated as the organisation's leader and win any future election? That is if one is called however. The problem still hasn't fully de-escalated yet, deeming it ancient history is premature.<br /><br />A coup is the ousting of government usually by a small segment of the population. It still fits the definition of coup. The military isn't democratically elected anyway. Who liked BIFFO's short reign? Regardless of displeasure, he was legitimately there in office (Morsi). You can't just start anarchy. The rule of law must prevail over the rule of the mob.<br /><br />Putting off mass slaughter to a later death? How considerate of them.<br /><br />The Shia-Sunni conflict is only a recent phenomenon in the ME. KSA which is bankrolled by Zionist America has long discriminated against its Shia minority. Saddam in Iraq did the same as do the Al-Khalifa family in Bahrain. All propped up by the US.The latter two having Shia majorities. Iran, Syria and Hizballah all are independent of US influence and are guided by principles. Hence the US, influenced by Israel are attempting to undermine them both diplomatically and militarily.<br /><br />No consensus? Only the Americans would ignore an Israeli attack on their ships. Any other country and their capitals would be in flames. Israel has only gave the US enemies in the ME, no friends. If China could offer an aid package like the US Israel would hope on board in an instant. Fake loyalty.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-65225733695668155852013-08-24T18:17:06.143+01:002013-08-24T18:17:06.143+01:00"They have... a democratically elected presid..."They have... a democratically elected president who only managed to rule Egypt for a year and on the other a military coup backed by large masses of people." <br /><br />I do not have a strong conviction on whether Morsi should have gone. It was a problematic action but he has gone and is unlikely to return. Like the bank collapse, he may as well be deemed ancient history.<br /><br />There is no question in my mind that attaching the word "coup" to the events in Egypt is incorrect. A coup is a power-grab by a small section of a given society. Its polar opposite is a popular revolution. I will be writing more about the topic but a majority of the Egyptian electorate expressed extreme displeasure at his continuance in power.<br /><br />The crackdown was brutal and it is mentioned in negative terms in the article. However, the authorities had repeatedly put it off because it was widely expected that any action would lead to a very large loss of life. That indicates the authorities did not go on a rampage to simply intimidate protesters.<br /><br />I support legitimate protest. It is necessary for freedom. However, the violence that was used against by elements within the camp was unacceptable, and the camp was growing ever larger. It has been reported that eleven people were tortured to death at the camp.<br /><br />I do however agree that the notion democracy in the region would grow along Western lines was misplaced.<br /><br />What they label Saudi Arabia in Iran is of no consequence to the reality on the ground. It is a mistake to buy into the worth of politically-motivated sectarian views. the Sunni-Shia divide is of much greater import to conflict in the region than the existence of a small Jewish nation. The Jew-lover accusation is a par for the course, one each side labels their enemies.<br /><br />The US was involved in the supply of arms via Israel to Iran. There is no consensus on the USS Liberty.Rob Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11161685434804636265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528246176614662587.post-85607126698577876262013-08-24T12:28:32.439+01:002013-08-24T12:28:32.439+01:00Well of course Obama and the EU are hesitant about...Well of course Obama and the EU are hesitant about Egypt. They have on one hand a democratically elected president who only managed to rule Egypt for a year and on the other a military coup backed by large masses of people. David Cameron had the best response to Morsi's ousting saying that you can't encourage a coup against an elected government. <br /><br />The crackdown was quite brutal also as over 800 MB supporters were killed. You could try justify this by mentioning violent elements of the party but you would on one hand criticise those who protested Morsi's dismissal and support those who advocated it? That is a one sided approach to democracy. <br /><br />Egypt is more or less paid to keep peace with Israel. Most Sunni countries are. In Lebanon and Iran Saudi Arabia is nicknamed Yahudi Arabia because of its lack of support for their Arab brethren. Lebanon also receives military aid to prop up its army. This money comes out of the US taxpayer's money. America has paid dearly for supporting Israel. Israel isn't really an ally but a parasitic leach. Not only does the US directly give Israel aid but it also funds their enemies to keep quiet. You will probably argue some examples of vague friendship now but the truth is Israel has on several occasions went against US interests. Suez Crisis, USS Liberty, Settlement construction, supplying Iran during the Iran-Iraq war, invading Lebanon in 1982, willingness to trade military technology to China etc.<br /><br />Also how is Western democracy supposed to adapt to the East and Middle East? It is Western after all. There are those hoping that democracy will usher in a more liberal Arab world but as we've seen those people are delusional. Countries like Russia have found their own course to take without outside intervention.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com